// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD idled at 1.1637 (-0.1%) as a firmer dollar on renewed US-Iran strike headlines offset soft US data; ECB's Schnabel talked up the euro's reserve role.

With DXY at 99.2 the dollar stays structurally soft, but the 4.7% oil spike revives an inflation-risk premium that helps the dollar tactically, capping euro upside.

Tuesday's US JOLTS job openings sets the tone into Friday's payrolls; a hot print pressures 1.1580, a miss reopens 1.1690.

Cable held 1.3459, barely changed, as sterling shrugged off the stronger dollar tied to fresh US-Iran strike reports.

The pound is range-bound between a soft broad dollar (DXY 99.2) and UK fiscal worries; neither side has momentum to force a break.

US JOLTS Tuesday and payrolls Friday drive the dollar leg; 1.3520 caps rallies, 1.3380 is first support on a risk-off bid.

USD/JPY rose 0.2% to 159.70, pressing toward its 52-week high as higher US yields (10Y 4.47%) outweighed the broadly softer dollar.

The yield gap still favors the dollar versus a cautious BoJ, but proximity to 160 raises the risk of verbal MoF intervention.

160.50 is the line markets watch for intervention rhetoric; US JOLTS and payrolls steer yields and the next leg.

The Aussie slipped 0.3% to 0.7159 as rising US yields and a risk-off tilt from reports Tehran is exiting talks weighed on high-beta currencies.

AUD trades as a risk and China proxy; the Iran-driven jump in oil and yields is a classic headwind even with the dollar soft elsewhere.

0.7110 is first support if risk sours further; US JOLTS Tuesday and any China data set direction into payrolls.

Gold fell 0.8% to $4,525 as a firmer dollar and higher real yields drew money out of bullion, even with Iran tensions simmering.

The 10Y at 4.47% raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold; this week the safe-haven bid is being out-competed by oil.

$4,450 is first support; a soft JOLTS or payrolls print that revives rate-cut bets is the catalyst to retest $4,600.

Silver was flat at $75.57, holding up better than gold as industrial-demand hopes cushioned the higher-yield drag.

Silver's dual role, precious plus industrial, keeps it tethered to both the rate story and the AI and electrification capex theme.

71.00 remains the make-or-break support flagged by traders; a break of $78 reopens the move toward $80.

WTI jumped 4.7% to $91.47, the day's biggest macro mover, after conflicting US-Iran signals: Trump said talks continue while Tehran pushed back.

The market is pricing a supply-risk premium on any threat to Gulf flows; oil is now the dominant inflation and cross-asset risk variable.

$94 is the next resistance if headlines escalate; a credible de-escalation could unwind the spike back toward $88 fast.

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,599.96 (+0.26%), led by Nvidia's RTX Spark chip launch lifting tech, even as oil's spike capped breadth.

The rally is narrow and AI-concentrated; bulls argue earnings justify it, but the 4.7% oil jump and Friday's payrolls are the stress tests.

JOLTS Tuesday then payrolls Friday decide the Fed path; 7,650 is the next upside marker, 7,520 the first pullback support.

The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.6% to a record 30,514, powered by Nvidia (+6.3%) and Microsoft (+2.3%) on the RTX Spark PC-chip reveal.

Mega-cap AI leadership is doing the heavy lifting; the index lives and dies by the semiconductor and hyperscaler trade right now.

Futures already slipped overnight on Iran; 30,100 is first support, and payrolls Friday is the macro swing factor.

The Dow eked out +0.09% to a record 51,079, lagging tech-heavy peers as energy gains offset weakness in rate-sensitive names.

The Dow's value tilt makes it less exposed to the AI surge but more sensitive to oil and yields, both of which rose.

Asian shares slipped overnight on the Iran fighting; 50,600 is first support, JOLTS and payrolls set the macro tone.

Bitcoin dropped 3.6% to $70,899, the session's weakest major, as risk-off flows and attention on a Michael Saylor-linked sale weighed.

With dominance at 56.5%, BTC still leads crypto, but it is trading as a high-beta risk asset, vulnerable when yields and oil rise together.

$68,000 is the key support to defend; a soft JOLTS or payrolls that eases yields is the likeliest catalyst back toward $74,000.

Ether held $2,001, roughly flat, outperforming bitcoin's slide but stuck far below its prior highs, down about 60% from the 52-week peak.

ETH remains in BTC's shadow with dominance at 56.5%; without a fresh ETF or DeFi catalyst, it lacks an independent bid.

$1,900 is the line that must hold; reclaiming $2,100 is needed to signal any rotation back into ETH from bitcoin.

Nvidia surged 6.3% to $224.36 after unveiling its RTX Spark Superchip, its entry into the PC market that CEO Jensen Huang says brings AI to PCs.

The launch expands Nvidia's addressable market beyond data centers into consumer PCs, and it was the single biggest driver of the record tech rally.

$232 is the next resistance toward the 52-week high; watch Intel (-6%) and Qualcomm (-8%) for read-through on competitive impact.

Tesla fell 4.6% to $415.88, the day's worst mega-cap, after reports that OpenAI is entering robotics, a direct threat to its Optimus narrative.

Much of Tesla's premium rests on the robotics and AI story; a credible new competitor questions the moat investors are paying up for.

$400 is the psychological and technical support; any Optimus or robotaxi update is the catalyst to stabilize sentiment.

Apple slipped 1.8% to $306.31 as valuation questions resurfaced following its recent run toward record highs.

Apple has rallied without an aggressive AI pitch; that leaves it exposed when the market rotates toward explicit AI winners like Nvidia.

$300 is the round-number support; WWDC and any AI or services signal are the next catalysts to justify the valuation.

Microsoft rose 2.3% to $460.52, riding the Nvidia RTX Spark halo via a partnership on new AI laptops.

MSFT is a prime hyperscaler beneficiary of every leg of the AI buildout; the Nvidia tie-in reinforces its Copilot and PC positioning.

$470 is the next resistance; watch capex commentary as reports note Big Tech leaning on debt to fund AI spend.

Meta dropped 5.1% to $600.47, the steepest mega-cap decline, as a report highlighted Big Tech increasingly funding AI capex with debt.

Investors are starting to question the ROI and financing of the AI buildout; Meta's heavy spend makes it a lightning rod for that worry.

$585 is first support; commentary on capex efficiency and ad-revenue strength is what stabilizes the multiple.

Alphabet eased 1.0% to $376.37, caught in the broad mega-cap pullback amid scrutiny of debt-funded AI spending.

Alphabet shares the AI-capex financing concern, but search and cloud cash flow give it more cushion than peers.

$368 is first support; any antitrust headlines or cloud-growth signals are the swing factors from here.

Amazon fell 3.5% to $261.26 as the Big Tech debt-for-AI story pressured the cohort and risk appetite cooled.

AWS is central to Amazon's AI thesis; the debt-financing concern collides with investors wanting visible cloud-driven returns.

$254 is first support; AWS growth and capex guidance are the catalysts that decide whether the pullback extends.