// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD bounced to 1.1654 (+0.31%) as the dollar slipped on Hormuz ceasefire optimism, even after US strikes complicated the picture. Range traded tight all session as traders weighed conflicting Iran headlines.

Euro is the cleanest dollar-funded carry when oil-driven dollar strength fades. With DXY at 98.99 and US10Y near 4.46%, the relief rally favors EUR over higher-beta crosses while geopolitical resolution remains uncertain.

EU CPI flash print tomorrow is the main catalyst — ECB pricing still hinges on services inflation stickiness. 1.1700 caps upside; a clean Hormuz deal headline could push there. Loss of 1.1600 reopens 1.1550.

Cable closed at 1.3445 (+0.21%), a modest grind higher tracking broad dollar softness. Deutsche Bank's EUR/GBP rally call dampened sterling enthusiasm; GBP underperformed EUR on the session.

Sterling lacks a domestic catalyst this week, so it's purely a dollar funding play. BoE pricing already discounts cuts; without an inflation shock, GBP is range-bound between dollar sentiment and EUR cross-flow.

UK retail sales data and any BoE speaker hints on August cut timing. Resistance at 1.3480; support 1.3400. EUR/GBP move above 0.8680 would cap GBP/USD regardless of dollar direction.

USD/JPY slipped to 159.24 (-0.20%) as the dollar lost some Iran-premium overnight, but the pair stayed pinned near intervention-watch territory. Yen failed to capitalize on lower US yields.

The carry is still doing the work — even with US10Y at 4.46% (-0.58%), the differential vs JGBs keeps shorts on the back foot. Only MoF intervention or a Fed-pivot signal breaks this.

BoJ summary of opinions Friday; any hawkish hint accelerates yen recovery. 160.00 is the line that triggers verbal intervention rhetoric. Downside support 158.50 then 157.80.

AUD/USD rallied to 0.7166 (+0.47%), the best G10 performer as oil-stress easing lifted commodity currencies and the dollar's geopolitical bid faded.

Aussie trades as a risk-on / China-proxy basket — with S&P 500 at fresh records and Hormuz tail risk fading, the pair gets a clean tailwind. RBA hawkish hold last week still underpins.

China PMI data over the weekend is the next test. Resistance 0.7200 (psychological); support 0.7120. A risk-off reversal on fresh Iran headlines could quickly reprice the entire move.

Gold rebounded to $4,523 (+1.71%) as US strikes on Iran reignited the safe-haven bid after two sessions of ceasefire-driven selling. Silver led the precious metals complex higher with a +1.90% move.

The Iran story is a two-sided coin flip and gold remains the cleanest hedge for both inflation tail-risk (if oil spikes) and stagflation (if growth slows). Fed cut bets keep real yields contained.

Friday PCE inflation print is the binary catalyst — hot reading hits gold via real yields, cool print extends the rally. Support $4,450; resistance $4,580 then prior high $4,650.

Silver surged 1.90% to $76.02, outpacing gold's bounce as industrial-metals demand and the geopolitical bid stacked. Opened lower on Iran drone news, then ripped on the strike headlines.

Silver is leveraged gold plus an AI capex play — solar and data-center wiring demand sit underneath the macro trade. When gold runs and risk is on simultaneously, silver outperforms both.

$77 is the technical breakout level — clean break opens $80. PCE Friday matters less than gold for silver; watch copper and AI capex headlines instead.

WTI slipped to $88.48 (-0.23%), giving back overnight gains as Hormuz ceasefire optimism overcame US-strike concerns. Tight range as traders waited for the next Iran headline.

Oil is trading the binary — every Iran news cycle whipsaws the tape. The underlying physical market remains tight (OPEC+ disciplined), but headline risk dominates positioning until resolution.

Any Hormuz deal confirmation pushes to $85; failure or fresh escalation reopens $95. Weekly EIA inventories Wednesday remain in the background. $90 is the headline-driven pivot.

S&P 500 climbed to 7,563.6 (+0.58%), printing fresh record territory on US-Iran ceasefire optimism. Dell earnings and a Pentagon software deal added a bid; breadth supportive.

Record highs on geopolitical relief plus the AI capex story still funding bids in mega-caps. Microsoft +3.47% on Pentagon deal news shows the institutional buyer hasn't blinked despite bubble chatter.

PCE Friday is the only big macro print. Above 7,600 opens 7,700; failure of 7,500 turns it into a profit-taking session. Watch VIX 15.74 — sub-15 would confirm the all-clear.

Nasdaq 100 jumped to 30,223.9 (+0.84%), outperforming as AI-leveraged names led on the ceasefire bid plus fresh Anthropic $1T valuation chatter. Micron Q1 earnings still echoing.

The AI capex narrative is still doing the heavy lifting — Anthropic IPO and Samsung HBM4E shipping headlines reinforce the spend cycle. Peter Schiff's bubble warning is the only counter, and it hasn't bit yet.

30,500 is the next round-number magnet. PCE Friday plus any Nvidia commentary into the next earnings window. Loss of 29,800 would be the first real warning shot.

Dow ground out a marginal +0.05% to 50,669, lagging tech-led peers as defensives and rate-sensitives waited for Friday's PCE inflation print before committing.

Dow is the cyclical/value side of the record-high party — without a fresh rotation catalyst, it tracks but doesn't lead. The Iran-deal trade benefits transports and energy unevenly.

PCE inflation Friday — a hot print would hit rate-sensitive Dow components first. 51,000 is the round-number target; support 50,200. Energy weight matters if oil headlines whipsaw.

Bitcoin slipped to $73,558 (-1.06%) as risk assets diverged — equities rallied on ceasefire optimism while crypto faded. ETH down 0.76% in sympathy.

The Trump regulator dropping the Winklevoss case should be tailwind, but BTC dominance at 57.7% with falling prices says new flows aren't arriving. Crypto trades like a stale long here, not a fresh bid.

$72,000 is the line that turns this from chop into a real downside test. ETF flow data Friday; any positive headline on the Genius Act/regulation push could re-anchor. Resistance $75,500.

ETH eased to $2,007 (-0.76%), underperforming BTC even as Standard Chartered reset its 2026 prediction with the AMZN-after-dotcom analogy. Stablecoin-arms-race headlines didn't move the spot tape.

ETH is stuck between a bullish institutional narrative (Standard Chartered, stablecoin growth) and weak short-term flow. The dot-com analogy is a long-cycle story; price action is a near-term liquidity story.

$1,950 must hold to keep the constructive structure. Stablecoin regulation headlines and any spot ETF inflow surprise are the catalysts. Above $2,080 reopens $2,200.

Nvidia gained 0.78% to $214.25 in a mixed AI-name session. Yahoo Finance ran a 'bubble' segment on the AI trade; Micron's 850% YTD run highlighted memory leverage, not chip-design weakness.

NVDA is the AI capex bet's purest expression — even bubble worries don't dent it until hyperscaler capex forecasts soften. Samsung shipping HBM4E samples reinforces the demand stack.

$220 is the resistance to break for a clean leg higher. PCE Friday + any data-center capex commentary from cloud-provider guides. Support $208; loss opens $200.

Tesla closed at $442.10 (+0.40%), drifting higher with the broader Nasdaq. SpaceX-merger overhang dominated the news flow; production headlines absent.

TSLA is trading as a SpaceX-merger event rather than a fundamental EV story right now — shareholders are pricing dilution risk versus optionality. Robotaxi narrative is on the bench until next datapoint.

Any official SpaceX-merger terms or Musk commentary. June delivery numbers loom. Resistance $450; support $432. Break of $430 would be the first technical warning.

Apple added 0.53% to $312.51, a quiet grind on Best Buy's positive read-through (gadget demand + tax refunds) without major company-specific news.

AAPL is the defensive mega-cap in this tape — institutional buyers add it on dips when AI-trade volatility picks up. Lack of own catalyst makes it a beta + buyback story this week.

PCE Friday for rate sensitivity; any iPhone/services data point in the consumer channel. $315 resistance; support $308. WWDC overhang is still weeks out.

Microsoft surged 3.47% to $426.99, the day's mega-cap leader on a multibillion-dollar Pentagon software deal report from Dell. Azure/AI demand stack stays in play.

MSFT is monetizing every AI angle — government, enterprise, OpenAI partnership. The Pentagon deal validates Azure's defense vertical, the highest-margin durable revenue stream available to a hyperscaler.

Whether the deal headline gets confirmed/expanded. $430 is the breakout level; clean print opens $440. Support $420. AI capex commentary from peers will matter into next earnings.

Meta closed unchanged at $635.29 as Instagram/Facebook/WhatsApp subscription chatter went sideways. Anthropic $1T valuation headlines redirected AI-capex attention away from in-house Meta spend.

META is in a holding pattern — fundamentals are fine, but the marginal AI capex narrative is rotating to pure-plays (Anthropic, Micron) over hyperscalers. Subscription monetization story is too early to price.

Any concrete subscription pricing detail; Reality Labs Q2 read-through. $640 caps; support $625. PCE Friday matters less for META than for rate-sensitive peers.

Alphabet rose 0.33% to $390.13. Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.8 release plus the $1T pre-IPO valuation reinforced GOOGL's strategic investment thesis; Samsung HBM4E added an upstream positive.

Anthropic's valuation is a direct mark-to-market on GOOGL's stake. With the Cloud Anthropic partnership deepening, GOOGL captures both equity upside and the workload demand. Search-cannibalization fears recede this week.

Anthropic IPO timeline detail; any Gemini 3.0 release leak. Resistance $395 then $400. Support $385. Antitrust calendar still quiet.

Amazon gained 0.79% to $274.00 with Snowflake's AWS partnership and AI-demand story providing a lift. AWS leverage to enterprise AI capex still the cleanest read.

AMZN is benefiting from the Snowflake-AWS narrative just as much as Snowflake — every AI workload migration is AWS revenue. The Schiff bubble warning is the only macro overhang.

Any AWS Q1 enterprise customer color; Prime Day positioning. $278 resistance; support $270. Retail margins remain the underrated swing factor next earnings.