// DAILY DIGEST

Euro climbed to 1.1644 (+24 pips) in thin Memorial Day pre-Asia trade as the dollar slid further on Trump-Iran deal momentum and DXY broke 99.01.

The euro is the pure mirror-image of dollar weakness right now — no native catalyst, just a market unwinding the safe-haven dollar bid as Hormuz reopening looks plausible.

US holiday means thin liquidity all day. Friday's Lagarde speech and Wednesday's German Ifo will set the next ECB-vs-Fed differential trade; 1.1670 is the line.

Cable lifted to 1.3480 (+48 pips), tracking the broad dollar slide and outperforming EUR/USD as gilts steadied after last week's Burnham-leadership rout.

GBP is benefiting twice: dollar weakness plus a tactical short-cover after the political-risk premium peaked. The 1.35 handle would have looked impossible two weeks ago.

Thin US session today; tomorrow's BoE Pill speech is the key UK event. A clean break of 1.3500 opens 1.3580; failure here invites a retest of 1.3380.

USD/JPY drifted to 158.84 (-18 pips) as the dollar weakened broadly, but JPY underperformed every other major — yen still can't catch a bid even with US yields high.

The dollar-down-everywhere trade hasn't pulled the yen along because US10Y at 4.56% keeps the carry advantage massive. MoF intervention noise is the only thing holding 160.

BoJ summary of opinions Wednesday is the next BoJ-hike clue. Below 158.20 forces a real risk-off conversation; above 159.50 puts intervention chatter front and centre.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7171 (+22 pips), best-performing G10 on Iran-deal risk-on plus weak dollar — Aussie back near five-month highs and pushing the 0.72 line.

Aussie is the textbook risk-on dollar-down beneficiary, but with iron ore softening it's running on sentiment alone. RBA's hawkish hold last month gave it room.

Australian Q1 capex Thursday is the next domestic catalyst. A confirmed close above 0.7200 opens 0.7280; a stall here likely sends it back to 0.7100 on any Iran-deal disappointment.

Gold edged up to $4,523 (+$2.30) on dollar weakness, but the move is small versus the magnitude of the DXY slide — bullion not getting the safe-haven bid you'd expect.

Two opposing forces are netting out: weaker dollar bullish, but progress on Iran deal removes a chunk of the war-premium that drove gold to $5,600 highs earlier in 2026.

US PCE data Friday is the next macro pivot — a soft print revives Fed-cut bets and gold. The $4,500 floor has held all week; a break opens $4,400 quickly.

Silver firmed to $76.20 (+$0.30), tracking gold's modest gain but the gold/silver ratio at 59 is back near multi-year lows — silver has done the heavy lifting in 2026's rally.

Silver's industrial leg (solar, AI cooling, EVs) gives it the leverage to outperform on any global-growth thaw, and an Iran deal removes the recession-tail risk markets feared.

Today's thin tape mutes the move; Wednesday's US durable goods is the next industrial-demand read. $77 is the line — break opens $80; failure invites $74.

WTI flat at $96.60 in Asia after a brutal $4+ drop Friday — Trump's 'Iran deal could be hours away' post and reports of Hormuz reopening talks gutted the war premium.

Oil had a $20+ Iran-war premium baked in. Every signal that Hormuz reopens — even rumour — strips that premium fast. Friday's selloff was option-driven, today's flatness is exhaustion.

OPEC+ JMMC Wednesday is the next supply input. Confirmed Iran-deal announcement opens $88 quickly; deal collapse sends it back to $105. Watch headlines, not levels.

S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,473 (+0.37%), within 0.6% of all-time highs, on Iran-deal optimism and strong Q1 earnings tailwind. US closed today for Memorial Day.

Risk-on is being driven by two real catalysts: a credible path to ending the Iran war, and Q1 earnings beating estimates by the widest margin in two years.

US returns Tuesday with PCE data Friday. New highs need Iran-deal confirmation AND a soft PCE print; either-without-the-other likely caps gains at 7,500.

Nasdaq 100 ended Friday at 29,482 (+0.42%), led by chipmakers as the AI-trade caught a second wind alongside the broad risk-on bid. US closed today.

Mega-cap tech is the cleanest expression of 'lower-oil-plus-no-recession' — falling energy costs help margins, while the AI capex cycle keeps NVDA-adjacent names bid.

Tuesday's re-open is the real tell. Above 29,750 confirms breakout; failure to push through likely means the late-Friday move was holiday-thin buying that fades.

Dow Jones closed Friday at 50,580 (+0.58%), best of the three majors as cyclicals (industrials, financials) led on Iran-deal hopes. US closed today.

The Dow's old-economy mix benefits most from lower oil and a softer dollar — manufacturers' margins and multinational earnings both directly improve from those two moves.

Watch Boeing, Caterpillar, and the banks Tuesday for confirmation. A clean print above 51,000 sets up 52,000; below 50,000 invites profit-taking into PCE.

Bitcoin sits at $77,064 (+0.51%), going nowhere despite the broad risk-on tape. BTC is 39% off its early-2026 highs and the correlation with stocks has decoupled.

BTC dominance at 58.3% means BTC is the strong leg of crypto, but the asset class itself is in capitulation — Harvard sold last quarter, retail flows are stagnant.

$76K has held five times this month — break opens $72K fast. Recapture of $80K is the level that puts $90K back in play. Iran-deal confirmation could be the catalyst either way.

Ethereum slipped to $2,096 (-0.93%), underperforming BTC again and now 56% off 2026 highs. ETH/BTC at 0.027 is grinding lower week after week.

ETH is the worst of both worlds right now: not a safe haven, not a growth proxy, and overshadowed by L2 scaling questions and slow ETF inflows. Capitulation isn't done.

$2,000 is the psychological line — a break likely tags $1,800. Recapture of $2,200 needed to argue the bottom is in. Watch Dencun-follow-up upgrade news this week.

NVIDIA closed Friday at $215.33 (-1.90%), one of the worst Mag7 performers as some chip-trade enthusiasm faded into the long weekend after a strong week.

The AI-capex narrative is intact, but Friday's dip reflects positioning — funds locked in gains before US holiday + Iran-deal uncertainty. The 9% drawdown from highs is shallow.

Tuesday's re-open is the read. Above $220 puts $225 back in play; below $210 invites a deeper $200 retest. No NVDA-specific catalysts until late-June earnings.

Tesla jumped to $426.01 (+1.95%) Friday, best of the Mag7 as SpaceX IPO chatter and a softer-oil tailwind for EV-vs-ICE economics propelled the stock.

Lower oil hurts EV economics on paper, but the SpaceX IPO mania is dragging the entire Musk-complex higher regardless of fundamentals. Sentiment trade, not earnings trade.

Q2 delivery numbers due early July are the next hard data. Above $430 opens $450; the SpaceX IPO timeline (rumoured Q3) will dictate the volatility between now and then.

Apple closed Friday at $308.82 (+1.26%) — within 0.8% of all-time highs as the broader risk-on bid lifted defensive megacaps alongside cyclicals.

AAPL is benefiting from a flight-to-quality bid even in risk-on tape — institutions are crowding into proven cash-flow names ahead of any Iran-deal-driven volatility.

Above $311 makes new all-time highs the path of least resistance. WWDC in two weeks is the next stock-specific catalyst. Below $305 invites a quick retest of $300.

Microsoft closed Friday at $418.57 (-0.12%) — quiet, but still 25% off its 52-week highs after a brutal H2-2025 derate on cloud-growth-deceleration concerns.

MSFT is in the penalty box: Azure growth has slowed two quarters running, and the market is asking whether the AI-capex cycle is producing revenue or just expense.

No MSFT-specific catalysts until late-July earnings. Until then, the stock trades on macro and AI-trade sentiment. $415 is critical support; $425 unblocks $440.

Meta closed Friday at $610.26 (+0.47%) — recovering modestly but still 23% off its highs after Reality Labs spending re-spooked the market last earnings.

Meta is the cheapest Mag7 stock by P/E now, but the market wants proof that AI investment translates to ad-revenue acceleration before re-rating the multiple.

No earnings until late-July. Above $620 unblocks $640; the WSJ Zuckerberg-AI piece this morning is the kind of narrative reset that could put a bid under the stock.

Alphabet slipped to $382.97 (-1.21%) Friday — among the day's worst Mag7 performers, with Search-AI-disruption concerns flaring again on the back of a competitor product launch.

GOOGL is the Mag7 stock the market is most worried about, structurally. Every AI-search demo from competitors is treated as evidence Google's moat is leaking.

Antitrust ruling watch continues — remedies decision expected this summer. Above $390 stabilises the tape; below $380 risks a slide to $370.

Amazon fell to $266.32 (-0.80%) Friday — modest weakness, but AMZN is 4.4% off highs and tracking the broader AI-capex skepticism alongside MSFT.

AWS growth re-acceleration is the only thing that gets AMZN out of its range. Retail margins are doing fine; the market wants AWS to prove the AI-capex is paying off.

Late-July earnings is the binary event. Between now and then, watch enterprise-AI commentary from peers as a tell. Above $272 opens $280; below $263 invites $258.