// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD slipped 16 pips to 1.1606 as US 10-year yields climbed to 4.59%, pulling DXY back from session lows ahead of FOMC minutes.

The Fed-rate-cut path is being walked back — Treasury yields up, dollar firming — while ECB's energy-shock inflation outlook keeps EUR constrained on the upside.

Fed minutes at 21:00 TRT. Patient language or any cut-pricing reset → 1.1650 break. Hawkish surprise opens 1.1550 retest into the weekend.

Cable held flat at 1.3428 — UK gilt yields stayed elevated near 28-year highs as Burnham leadership rumours kept sterling beta pressured.

Deutsche Bank sees room for EUR/GBP to extend higher — UK political risk is reasserting itself as the dominant idiosyncratic factor over central bank divergence.

Fed minutes tonight set the broader USD tone. Break below 1.3380 opens 1.3300; 1.3500 caps any relief rally on dovish surprises.

USD/JPY climbed 21 pips to 159.10 as the US 10-year yield hit 4.59%, widening rate differentials and squeezing yen carry positioning toward MoF intervention zones.

BoJ's slow normalisation cannot keep pace with re-priced Fed expectations — the 160 line acts as a magnet but also a verbal-intervention trigger.

Fed minutes hawkish tone tests 160; dovish lean unwinds toward 158.20 support. Watch for MoF chatter above 159.50.

AUD/USD lost 17 pips to 0.7133 — Aussie failed to ride crude oil's $1.80 rally as broader risk-off positioning into Fed minutes capped commodity FX.

Without a China stimulus catalyst, the iron-ore-yuan correlation has gone quiet — yields differential dominates Aussie pricing right now.

0.7100 is the critical pivot. Loss opens 0.7050 (2026 low); Fed dovish surprise revives 0.7180 retest.

Gold slipped to $4,523 for a fifth straight session inside a tight $4,500-$4,540 range; DXY firming back toward 99.34 and the 10y at 4.59% remove the ceasefire-relief tailwind that drove the prior leg.

The post-ceasefire bid has run its course. Without a fresh Iran escalation or a clear yield reversal, gold is positioning-driven, not macro-driven, and ETF flows have flatlined through the week.

21:00 TRT US flash PMI and any Trump weekend Iran comment. Clean break above $4,540 reopens $4,600; loss of $4,500 targets $4,475 into a quiet Asian Monday open.

Silver dribbled to $76.27 to cap a flat week stuck inside $75.50-$77.20; the gold/silver ratio at 59x sits above its 5y average, signalling no industrial-demand catch-up bid.

Industrial chatter is fading while safe-haven flows are stalled — silver is following gold lower without conviction, and continued SLV ETF outflows are capping every rebound attempt.

Friday close above $77.20 needed to keep the medium-term uptrend intact. Below $75.50, $74 becomes the next test into next week's PMI cycle.

WTI jumped $1.80 to $98.15 (+1.87%) — Iran tensions resurfacing overnight extended the Middle East risk premium into US sessions.

Hormuz disruption risk keeps a $5–$7 geopolitical bid baked into crude, masking softer demand signals from US shale output and global PMIs.

$100 psychological resistance — clean break invites $105 (52w high $119). Any ceasefire headline could flush back to $94 support.

S&P closed 7,445.72 and futures grind modestly higher pre-bell. The cash index has now traded a sub-30bp daily range for three sessions, the tightest stretch since February.

The narrative shifted from 'stocks climb on Iran diplomacy hopes' overnight to 'stocks waver amid uncertainty' this morning — Walmart's cautious consumer outlook still weighs while bond-yield easing keeps the dip well-bid.

21:00 TRT US flash PMI and Fed Williams comments. Weekly close above 7,460 confirms a fresh ATH attempt; loss of 7,400 reopens 7,360 support into Monday.

Nasdaq futures point higher pre-bell with cash at 29,357 — an 8th consecutive weekly gain is on the table if the index holds above the rising 21-day, which sits near 29,150.

The peace-hopes bid is fading but the AI-spend story keeps lifting: NVDA's CFO just flagged a $20B CPU revenue runway, and the EY/Microsoft $1B enterprise-AI deal is fresh validation of the Copilot wedge.

Friday close above 29,500 sets the 8-week streak. SpaceX S-1 documentation drops are the after-hours wildcard; downside support sits at 29,000, then 28,800.

Dow futures nudge higher with bond yields easing — the cash close at 50,286 sits 1.7% off all-time highs as peace-talk optimism rebuilds slowly into the Friday open.

Capital is rotating into rate-sensitive financials — regional names like Eastern Bank and Merchants Bancorp are surging — while energy fades as oil drifts under $98 on Iran-deal hopes. Classic late-cycle melt-up signature.

21:00 TRT US flash PMI is the cyclical confirmation read. Cash close above 50,400 sustains the trend; below 49,950, watch for a quick test of 49,500.

BTC is glued to $77,000-$77,500 for a fifth straight session, currently $77,354. Closing the week up just 0.1% would mark the tightest weekly range since February.

Germany rejecting the Greens' bid to end the crypto tax exemption is a quiet structural positive, but flows are dormant — ETF net creations under $50M/day, and altcoin rotation (NEAR +28% on AI/scaling) is pulling marginal capital away.

Weekly close above $77,500 keeps the bull structure clean. Loss of $76,800 opens the $75,000 risk that several desks are now flagging out loud into Sunday's CME gap.

Ethereum slid to $2,122 (-0.45%) — underperforming Bitcoin as DeFi flows softened post-Verus bridge exploit and TVL contracted.

ETH's tech-stock proxy status amplifies macro risk — without a fresh L2 catalyst, the ratio drift to BTC accelerates with dominance.

$2,100 support cluster. Loss invites $1,950 (52w-low test); risk-on Fed minutes could trigger a reflexive bounce.

NVDA shed 1.77% to $219.51 — heavy pre-earnings de-risking after Yahoo Finance flagged the stock as 'mispriced' from both directions.

CFO Kress's $20B CPU revenue comment and Vera Rubin platform commentary set a high bar — gross-margin tone is the key swing variable tonight.

Earnings tonight after close. Beat plus raise plus 73%+ GM → opens $230. Miss on GM or weak guide → $210 gap-fill likely.

Tesla closed flat at $417.85 — failed to capitalise on Newsom's $1B California EV/AI announcement as US Model Y price hike signalled demand softness.

Auto unit margins are compressing; the narrative is shifting to robotaxi and Optimus — but neither produces near-term free cash flow proof.

$415 multi-week pivot — break opens $400. Fed dovishness plus broader risk-on could re-test $430 resistance.

Apple outperformed +0.91% to $304.99 — WSJ piece on 'hit products from imperfect chips' highlighted Apple's margin moat.

Apple is becoming the defensive mega-cap of choice — China iPhone-17 discount strategy supports volumes without damaging gross margin.

$310 first resistance, $300 round-number support. Fed dovish plus an NVDA beat would unlock breakout above $310.

Microsoft closed $419.09 — flat into the open, but a fresh $1B enterprise-AI partnership with EY announced this morning quietly resets the Azure/Copilot revenue story for the next quarter.

Big-4 consultancies are the second-derivative AI-spend story: EY committing to deploy at scale on Azure validates the Copilot enterprise wedge that bears have been doubting since Q3 results.

Open above $420 confirms the EY headline gets bid; below $415 says the market still wants harder revenue evidence. Next datapoint: enterprise software channel checks next week.

Meta gained $2.33 to $607.38 (+0.38%) — digital-ad spend resilience headlines offset broader mega-cap caution into the close.

Cheapest of the Mag-7 by P/E narrative is gaining traction — Reality Labs losses no longer scaring incremental buyers.

$610 caps near-term — reclaim opens $620. Fed minutes dovish plus continued ad-spend bullishness is the combo trigger.

Alphabet fell 0.32% to $387.66 — Druckenmiller-dumps-Alphabet headline plus Bank of America forecast reset weighed on positioning.

GOOGL is the controversial Mag-7 right now — search-AI cannibalisation fear versus Gemini upside debate is splitting institutional flows.

$385 must hold; loss opens $375. BofA forecast event near-term and Fed minutes tonight drive the next 24h direction.

Amazon led Mag-7 gainers +1.30% to $268.46 — US Bancorp card-deal announcement plus Cramer 'fan' callout drove buying flows.

AWS demand staying robust plus the payments narrative gives AMZN catalyst diversity others lack heading into the NVDA print risk event.

$270 round-number test — clean break opens $278. NVDA AI guide spillover key — a strong print extends the rally.