// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD held the 1.16 handle, drifting lower by single-digit pips as broad dollar softness from US-Iran Hormuz deal optimism barely moved the needle.

DXY at 99.10 reflects risk-on dollar selling, but the euro is a passive beneficiary — no ECB story of its own to push it through resistance.

1.1680 caps any rally; loss of 1.1580 opens 1.1500. EZ confidence data tomorrow is the next macro pulse.

Cable churned near 1.3478, effectively flat, with sterling unable to extract gains from the weaker dollar tape.

UK fiscal worries — gilt market still digesting Labour leadership noise — are capping every upside attempt despite the global risk-on backdrop.

1.3520 resistance has held three sessions; 1.3420 support is the line that confirms UK-specific weakness.

USD/JPY printed 158.99, pinned near 159 despite broad dollar softness — the yen got no relief from the risk-on move.

BoJ-Fed rate differential still wide; with risk-on returning, JPY funding flows are dominating any dollar-weakness narrative.

160 is the MoF intervention zone Tokyo has defended twice; a clean break invites verbal warnings then action.

AUD/USD ticked up 5 pips to 0.7162 on the risk-on tape, but the move was muted versus the broader commodity complex.

Aussie usually leads risk-on rallies, but with oil cratering -4.7% the commodity-currency premium got partially neutralized.

0.7200 round-number resistance, 0.7100 support. China April industrial data Friday is the next domestic catalyst.

Gold added $12 to $4,533, holding above $4,500 even as Iran de-escalation hopes drained war premium from the complex.

Real yields capped (US10Y 4.56%) and a weaker dollar are doing the heavy lifting — gold buyers are no longer just hedging Hormuz, they are positioning for Fed cuts.

$4,600 is the all-time-high cluster; loss of $4,450 confirms war-premium unwind. Powell speech Thursday is the catalyst.

Silver outperformed gold sharply, ripping +1.5% to $77.05 — a clean break of the prior consolidation range.

Industrial demand thesis (solar + EV grid build) is reasserting independent of war premium; gold/silver ratio is compressing fast.

$78 breakout opens $80; failure to hold $76 brings the move into question. Watch Comex inventory draws next two sessions.

WTI cratered $4.58 to $92.02 — a -4.7% session — as officials signalled a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent.

The market is unwinding the Hormuz risk premium in real time; positioning was overwhelmingly long, so the squeeze is mechanical, not fundamental.

A signed deal accelerates the move toward $85; if talks collapse, $100 returns inside 48h. OPEC+ rhetoric is the wild card.

S&P 500 added 27.8 points to 7,473.5 — a fresh record close as the lower-oil + weaker-dollar combo delivered pure risk-on fuel.

Lower oil compresses input costs, eases CPI prints, and shortens the Fed cut path — a triple tailwind hitting at the same time.

7,500 round number is the next magnet; CPI Thursday is the only macro print that can derail the bid.

Nasdaq 100 climbed 124 points to 29,481, mega-cap tech leading the risk-on charge as the rate-sensitive index gobbled the dollar weakness.

AI capex story uninterrupted by the war scare; lower oil + softer dollar both feed multiple expansion at the long-duration end.

29,700 is the next resistance shelf; NVDA earnings late this week are the single largest beta source.

Dow outperformed +0.58% to 50,579, cyclicals catching an aggressive bid as transports and industrials priced in cheaper fuel.

Energy giving back gains is offset by every other input-cost-sensitive sector rallying — classic rotation, not a defensive bid.

51,000 round number; durable-goods data Friday will tell us if the cyclical bid has fundamentals behind it.

BTC slipped $163 to $76,819 despite a roaring risk-on tape — the divergence is the story of the session.

BTC dominance at 58.2% sets the stage for capital rotation; when stocks rip and BTC fades on the same day, alts usually catch the overflow.

$75K is the support line drawn three weeks ago; ETF flow data tomorrow morning shows if institutional bid is still there.

ETH held $2,100, refusing to follow BTC lower — flat against the index while majors retreated, a quiet outperformance.

Capital rotation from peak BTC dominance historically lands in ETH first; today is the classic setup for an ETH/BTC ratio bounce.

$2,150 breakout confirms the rotation thesis; failure to hold $2,080 sends it back into the range. Layer-2 fees data is the tell.

NVDA broke down $4.18 to $215.33, lagging the tech rally as profit-takers used the index strength to lighten crowded longs.

AI capex narrative is intact, but positioning is the most one-sided in the index — any micro-doubt produces outsized moves like today.

$210 is the line that defines whether this is profit-taking or distribution; earnings late this week settle the debate.

TSLA bounced $8.16 to $426.01, +2% — riding the broader risk-on plus a fresh Musk-orbit catalyst flow into the name.

SpaceX IPO chatter is spilling into TSLA as investors treat Musk-related equities as a single basket trade.

$430 is the breakout line; failure to take it sends bulls back to defend $415. Robotaxi miles update is the next data point.

AAPL added $3.83 to $308.82, +1.3% — leading the mega-caps as the most-owned name absorbed the risk-on flows first.

A weaker dollar lifts foreign-revenue translation directly; Apple has the largest non-USD revenue base of the mega-caps.

$310 is the round-number resistance that has held three sessions; iPhone sell-through data later this week is the catalyst.

MSFT printed 418.57, essentially flat-to-down on a strong tech tape — a relative laggard worth noting.

Azure growth still solid but the valuation premium leaves no room for surprise; the bar is now perfection, not strength.

$415 support break would be the first technical warning; OpenAI partnership disclosures the next narrative move.

META added $2.88 to $610.26, +0.47% — in-line with the index, neither leading nor lagging the mega-cap pack.

Ad-revenue resilience plus AI infrastructure spend are the structural story; today macro is a secondary tailwind.

$615 is the breakout from the multi-week range; Reels monetization data in next print is the genuine catalyst.

GOOGL broke from the mega-cap pack and fell $4.69 to $382.97, -1.2% — clear underperformance.

DoJ antitrust remedy chatter is weighing despite the favorable macro; the overhang is now company-specific, not sector-wide.

$380 is the support line that has held since March; loss of it opens $370 quickly. DoJ filing schedule is the live risk.

AMZN slipped $2.14 to $266.32, -0.8% — the consumer-discretionary name lagged despite the oil tailwind it usually loves.

AWS competition from Azure and Google has analysts trimming margin estimates; macro tailwind cannot offset the unit-economics worry.

$263 support is the line; Prime Day setup commentary in the next few days is the next narrative catalyst.