// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1712 as the dollar caught a bid on a scorching PPI print -- wholesale inflation jumped 1.4% MoM, the hottest since March 2022.

The PPI surprise pushes back Fed cut expectations, but the real test is whether the Trump-Xi summit in South Korea produces any trade de-escalation that could undercut the greenback.

Trump-Xi face-to-face tomorrow -- any tariff rollback language sends DXY lower and EUR higher; a breakdown re-opens 1.1650.

Cable dropped to 1.3517, giving back 75 pips as the dollar firmed post-PPI. UK had no major data to counter the move.

Sterling is caught between a hawkish BoE stance and broad dollar strength; the pair is trading on US macro, not UK fundamentals right now.

UK employment data due Thursday -- a soft labor market reading could accelerate GBP weakness toward 1.3450.

Dollar-yen pushed to 157.85, gaining nearly 40 pips as US yields climbed on the hot PPI. The 10Y hit 4.48%.

Rising US yields widen the rate differential further, but the pair is nearing levels where BoJ verbal intervention historically begins -- watch for Tokyo commentary.

Japan GDP prelim due Thursday; a weak print could paradoxically strengthen yen if it triggers BoJ caution on further tightening.

Aussie edged up to 0.7266, shrugging off dollar strength as copper and iron ore held firm on China stimulus hopes ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

AUD is trading as a China proxy -- any positive trade signals from the summit would disproportionately benefit the Aussie given Australia's commodity export exposure.

China industrial production and retail sales data due Friday -- those numbers will confirm or deny the recovery narrative supporting AUD.

Gold held near $4,708, essentially flat despite a surging dollar and rising yields -- a notable show of resilience.

The inflation backdrop is gold's friend even as yields rise; real rates matter more than nominal, and PPI running hot keeps the stagflation hedge bid alive.

CPI follow-through tomorrow -- if core comes in above 3.5%, gold likely breaks $4,750; a downside surprise could see profit-taking to $4,650.

Silver surged nearly 12% to $89.80, massively outperforming gold. Industrial demand narrative is accelerating with AI data center buildout.

The gold-silver ratio is compressing fast -- silver's dual role as industrial metal and monetary asset is finally being repriced as semiconductor and solar demand projections get revised up.

Watch the $90 psychological level -- a clean break opens the path to triple digits; rejection here could trigger a sharp mean-reversion given how extended the move is.

WTI crude jumped 6.8% to $101.89 as OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast but geopolitical risk premium surged on Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz concerns.

The supply story dominates demand worries -- Strait of Hormuz shipping lane fears are adding $5-8 of risk premium, and any escalation takes oil toward $110.

EIA crude inventories Wednesday -- a large draw would confirm tight supply; Trump-Xi summit could ease Iran tensions if discussed, capping upside.

S&P 500 rose 1.1% to a new intraday all-time high at 7,447 as tech enthusiasm overwhelmed a scorching PPI print that showed wholesale inflation at 6% YoY.

The market is choosing to look through inflation to the AI capex cycle -- Nvidia, Micron, and semis leading tells you this is a growth bet, not a macro bet.

CPI tomorrow is the make-or-break -- if core stays elevated, the rates repricing could finally dent equity multiples; but tech momentum may power through.

Nasdaq 100 gained 2.7% to 29,372 as semiconductor stocks exploded higher -- SMH ETF up 2%, with Nvidia leading the charge on AI demand optimism.

The second wave of AI infrastructure spend is being priced in; Alibaba's AI revenue boom despite margin compression shows the TAM is expanding globally.

Nvidia's price action at $230 resistance is key -- a breakout likely pulls the entire index higher; CPI miss could trigger a rotation out of growth.

Dow dropped 0.6% to 49,623, lagging badly as the index's old-economy tilt missed the tech rally. Value stocks sold off on inflation fears.

Hot PPI hits Dow components hardest -- industrials, financials, and consumer staples face margin pressure from input cost inflation that tech largely avoids.

Ford and GM rallied on EV optimism, but the broader Dow needs CPI relief tomorrow to stop the rotation into Nasdaq names.

Bitcoin pulled back 1.7% to $79,309 despite broad risk-on in equities. Crypto is diverging from its usual tech-beta behavior.

The correlation break is telling -- BTC may be repricing as an inflation hedge rather than a risk asset, but conviction is low with the Trump-Xi summit adding uncertainty.

The $80K level is pivotal -- losing it opens $75K; reclaiming it with volume would signal the dip is buyable. Watch ETF flow data for institutional positioning.

Ethereum dropped 3.1% to $2,255, underperforming Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC ratio continues to compress as capital rotates to BTC dominance plays.

Layer-2 scaling is cannibalizing mainnet fee revenue, making the ETH investment case harder to articulate while BTC benefits from simpler store-of-value narrative.

ETH needs to hold $2,200 support or risk accelerating to $2,100. Any positive Pectra upgrade news could reverse the trend.

Nvidia surged 9% to $226.60, its best day in weeks, as AI infrastructure demand signals intensified. Semiconductor ETFs hit record highs.

The second wave AI thesis is going mainstream -- data center capex projections keep getting revised up, and Nvidia remains the picks-and-shovels monopoly play.

Approaching the $230 resistance level from pre-correction highs. A breakout on volume confirms the trend; earnings guidance season for cloud customers will be the next catalyst.

Tesla rocketed 12.3% to $447.89, leading the S&P 500 as EV stocks broadly rallied. Lucid and NIO also jumped 9% and 7% respectively.

The EV sector is catching a bid from two angles -- Ford's strong results legitimize the space, and Trump's China trip raises hopes for reduced EV tariff barriers.

Tesla China sales data this week is the near-term catalyst. The stock needs to hold above $430 to confirm the breakout from its recent range.

Apple climbed 4.4% to $300.21, crossing the $300 level for the first time as the broader tech rally lifted all boats.

The Trump-Xi summit is particularly relevant for Apple given its massive China manufacturing exposure -- any tariff de-escalation is a direct margin tailwind.

The $300 round number is now support -- holding above it would be bullish. WWDC AI announcements in June are the next company-specific catalyst.

Microsoft fell 2.4% to $404, bucking the tech rally. The Musk-OpenAI trial testimony from CEO Nadella added uncertainty around the AI partnership structure.

The OpenAI revenue-sharing cap discussion is creating overhang -- if OpenAI restructures its profit-sharing, Microsoft's AI economics could change materially.

Watch for trial developments this week. A resolution or clarity on the OpenAI structure removes a key uncertainty; continued drama could push MSFT below $400 support.

Meta edged up 0.3% to $614.98, underperforming the Nasdaq. AI-related layoff concerns and internal tensions dampened sentiment.

Meta's AI pivot is generating revenue growth but the workforce restructuring signals suggest margins are under more pressure than the headline numbers show.

The $620 resistance has capped three rallies this month. A break above on strong volume would target $650; failure keeps the stock range-bound.

Alphabet gained 0.8% to $401.38, modestly outperforming. Anthropic partnership news provided a small boost to the AI narrative.

Google's cloud and AI positioning keeps improving, but antitrust overhang remains the structural discount that limits multiple expansion.

Google I/O announcements are the upcoming catalyst. Any Gemini product breakthroughs could re-rate the stock; antitrust ruling timeline is the key risk to monitor.

Amazon fell 2.1% to $269.36 as the hot PPI print raised concerns about consumer spending power. AWS growth narrative took a backseat.

Amazon is caught between its AI/cloud growth story and its consumer retail exposure -- rising wholesale prices signal margin pressure on the e-commerce side.

The $265 support level from April's consolidation is the line in the sand. Watch for any retail sales data Thursday to gauge consumer health.