// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD slipped 19 pips to 1.1716 as the dollar steadied ahead of the Trump-Xi Beijing summit, trimming Monday's risk-on rally.

The planned trade truce extension is keeping a floor under risk sentiment, but euro upside is capped by soft EZ industrial data and Warsh's hawkish confirmation as new Fed chair.

Trump-Xi outcomes dominate — any concrete tariff rollback language sends EUR toward 1.1780; a breakdown reopens 1.1650.

Cable dipped 15 pips to 1.3522 in thin trade, with UK political noise around Starmer's leadership crisis providing a mild headwind.

Sterling remains resilient on a macro basis — BoE rate differentials favor the pound — but domestic political uncertainty is capping gains above 1.3560.

UK labor market data due Thursday; a hot wages print would reinforce BoE hawkishness and push cable toward 1.3600.

USD/JPY edged up 19 pips to 157.86 as US 10Y yields climbed to 4.48%, widening the rate differential against the BoJ's ultra-loose stance.

New Fed chair Warsh's hawkish rhetoric on inflation is pushing the long end higher, but yen weakness past 158 risks verbal intervention from Tokyo.

US Retail Sales at 15:30 TRT — a strong print extends the yield push toward 158.50; BoJ commentary is the wildcard.

AUD/USD rallied 26 pips to 0.7264, outperforming G10 peers as copper and iron ore firmed on China stimulus hopes ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

Australia is the direct proxy trade for US-China detente — any tariff relief lifts commodity demand expectations and pulls AUD higher.

Australian employment data Thursday plus Trump-Xi meeting outcomes — a double catalyst that could drive a 50-pip range.

Gold held flat at $4,699, consolidating near all-time highs after last week's surge through $4,700 faded into profit-taking.

The push-pull between geopolitical safe-haven flows and rising real yields is keeping gold pinned — DXY at 98.48 provides a tailwind, but 10Y at 4.48% caps upside.

Trump-Xi summit is the key risk event — genuine de-escalation would trigger gold selling toward $4,630; any breakdown sends it back above $4,750.

Silver dropped 1.3% to $87.71, underperforming gold as the gold-silver ratio widened on profit-taking in industrial metals.

Silver's dual identity hurts here — industrial demand uncertainty from US-China tensions offsets monetary haven support, while the AI-driven solar panel build-out trade pauses for breath.

China industrial production data Friday and the Trump-Xi tariff discussions will determine if silver's industrial bid resumes or fades.

WTI crude ticked up 0.2% to $101.22 as the Iran-Israel ceasefire held but traders stayed cautious ahead of the Beijing summit.

Oil is caught between Middle East supply risk premium and demand uncertainty — Brent above $106 reflects the geopolitical floor, but a tariff deal could boost demand expectations.

EIA crude inventories at 17:30 TRT plus Trump-Xi trade headlines — a drawdown plus positive trade signals could push WTI toward $103.

S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,444, posting fresh all-time highs as tech led a broad risk-on session ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

The AI capex cycle is broadening — Nebius surging 684% on data center revenue shows the infrastructure buildout is accelerating beyond the Mag 7.

US Retail Sales Thursday at 15:30 TRT and ongoing earnings from Cisco (beat on AI orders) set the tone — 7,500 is the next psychological level.

Nasdaq 100 surged 1.0% to 29,367, led by GOOGL (+3.9%) and TSLA (+2.7%) as the AI trade broadened with Cerebras IPO hype.

The comparison to the dot-com bubble is losing traction — AI revenue is real (Nebius, Cisco AI orders), and the Cerebras blockbuster IPO signals a deepening capital market appetite.

Trump-Xi meeting could catalyze chip sector if AI safeguard agreements ease export restrictions — watch SOX index for confirmation above 7,000.

Dow slipped 0.1% to 49,693, lagging as value stocks paused while growth and tech outperformed on AI momentum.

Rotation into tech/growth names is pulling capital from Dow industrials — Cisco jumped on AI orders but broader industrial sentiment is cautious ahead of trade talks.

50,000 remains the key psychological barrier — a positive Trump-Xi trade deal outcome is the catalyst most likely to break it.

Bitcoin rose 0.7% to $79,797 despite Bitcoin ETFs recording their largest outflow in three months, with spot buying absorbing the institutional selling.

BTC dominance at 58.2% shows capital concentration in bitcoin over altcoins — the ETF outflow signals institutional profit-taking, but on-chain accumulation addresses keep climbing.

The $80,000 level is the immediate resistance — a clean break above with ETF inflow reversal targets $83,000; rejection sends it back to $77,000 support.

ETH gained 0.5% to $2,268, modestly outperforming amid renewed attention on Ethereum's AI-compute narrative.

Bit Digital's pivot toward AI infrastructure is highlighting the ETH-AI convergence trade, but low gas fees and declining DeFi TVL keep structural bulls waiting for the Pectra upgrade catalysts.

ETH/BTC ratio is the key signal — a bounce off 0.0284 suggests altcoin rotation is starting; failure opens 0.0270.

NVIDIA surged 2.3% to $225.83 as Jensen Huang joined Trump's delegation to Beijing, signaling potential AI export policy shifts.

Huang's presence at the Trump-Xi meeting is the most bullish signal for chip export relief in months — if AI safeguard agreements ease restrictions, NVDA's China TAM re-opens significantly.

Trump-Xi AI safeguard discussions Thursday are the make-or-break — positive language on chip exports targets $235; disappointment sends it back to $218.

Tesla jumped 2.7% to $445.27, rallying with the broader EV sector as Musk confirmed attendance at the Trump-Xi Beijing meeting.

Musk's diplomatic role gives Tesla unique access to Chinese policy discussions — any tariff relief on EV components or Shanghai factory expansion signals would be directly accretive.

Tesla's China sales data and Trump-Xi EV-related trade concessions are the dual catalysts — $460 resistance from April highs is the target if talks go well.

Apple rose 1.4% to $298.87, hitting a fresh all-time high as Tim Cook joined the Trump delegation to Beijing.

Apple's supply chain is the most China-exposed of the Mag 7 — Cook's presence at trade talks signals Apple is actively lobbying for tariff relief on iPhone components.

The $300 round number is immediate resistance — a break above on positive trade headlines would be technically significant, opening $310.

Microsoft dipped 0.6% to $405.21, giving back gains as Anthropic's Claude for Small Business launch intensified the AI platform competition narrative.

MSFT's AI moat through OpenAI partnership is being tested from multiple angles — Anthropic, Google, and now open-source models are narrowing the enterprise AI premium.

Azure growth guidance at the next earnings call is what matters — until then, $400 is support and $415 is the ceiling.

Meta jumped 2.3% to $616.63, outperforming on a Wall Street note calling it a bargain relative to its AI advertising moat.

At ~22x forward earnings with AI-driven ad targeting improvements flowing straight to margins, Meta is being re-rated as a value play within the Mag 7.

Reels monetization data and any updates on the Llama 4 open-source rollout at upcoming events — $630 is the next resistance from February highs.

Alphabet surged 3.9% to $402.62, leading the Mag 7 as Apple's fresh record and broad tech optimism lifted the search giant.

Google's AI Overviews are driving search revenue re-acceleration, and the Waymo autonomous vehicle narrative adds a second growth vector that the market is beginning to price in.

Antitrust ruling timeline and Google I/O follow-up commentary on Gemini adoption are the near-term catalysts — $410 resistance, $390 support.

Amazon gained 1.6% to $270.13, extending its streak to six consecutive quarters of earnings growth as AWS AI demand stays robust.

AWS is the pick-and-shovel play for the AI buildout — six straight quarters of accelerating revenue growth proves the hyperscaler thesis, and Nebius's data center surge confirms the broader demand.

Retail Sales data Thursday at 15:30 TRT is a dual catalyst — strong consumer spending helps retail while validating the AWS infrastructure spending cycle.