// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD slid 57 pips to 1.1678 as the dollar bid returned post-data; the Trump-Xi summit headlines failed to lift the euro despite Beijing's softening tone.

Rate differential dominates intraday — US 10Y holding at 4.45% versus a softer EZ rate path keeps the euro on the back foot, and Warsh's confirmation removed any lingering Fed dovishness.

If 1.1650 cracks, the next bid sits at 1.1610; a constructive Trump-Xi tone can still snap EUR back to 1.1740 into the European close.

Cable dipped 15 pips to 1.3522 in thin trade, with UK political noise around Starmer's leadership crisis providing a mild headwind.

Sterling remains resilient on a macro basis — BoE rate differentials favor the pound — but domestic political uncertainty is capping gains above 1.3560.

UK labor market data due Thursday; a hot wages print would reinforce BoE hawkishness and push cable toward 1.3600.

USD/JPY edged up 19 pips to 157.86 as US 10Y yields climbed to 4.48%, widening the rate differential against the BoJ's ultra-loose stance.

New Fed chair Warsh's hawkish rhetoric on inflation is pushing the long end higher, but yen weakness past 158 risks verbal intervention from Tokyo.

US Retail Sales at 15:30 TRT — a strong print extends the yield push toward 158.50; BoJ commentary is the wildcard.

AUD/USD rallied 26 pips to 0.7264, outperforming G10 peers as copper and iron ore firmed on China stimulus hopes ahead of the Trump-Xi summit.

Australia is the direct proxy trade for US-China detente — any tariff relief lifts commodity demand expectations and pulls AUD higher.

Australian employment data Thursday plus Trump-Xi meeting outcomes — a double catalyst that could drive a 50-pip range.

Gold drifted $7 lower to $4,690 on light profit-taking; intraday range was tight as US yields held 4.45% and DXY stayed near 98.74.

India capping duty-free gold imports softens a marginal physical bid, but global central-bank demand and unresolved geopolitics keep the floor intact above $4,650.

EIA inventories at 17:30 TRT and the post-summit US fiscal narrative — a dovish surprise from the Trump-Xi readout would re-fire safe-haven flows toward $4,750.

Silver dumped 3.9% to $85.42, sharply underperforming gold as the ratio widened — industrial-metal positioning unwound on China demand concerns.

The AI build-out narrative is taking a breather while traders de-risk ahead of the Trump-Xi readout — silver always cracks first when the industrial-vs-haven split widens.

$84.50 is the key prior pivot; a hold there with positive China headlines opens a reversion to $88, otherwise $82 is the next demand zone.

WTI flat at $100.85, oscillating in a $0.50 range as traders sat on hands ahead of EIA inventories and the Beijing communiqué.

Geopolitical risk premium is intact (ceasefire fragile) but real demand signals are muted — neither side of the Trump-Xi book wants to be wrong before the readout.

EIA at 17:30 TRT — a draw plus any China demand language pushes WTI through $102; a build into a stalled summit reopens $98.

S&P 500 climbed 0.95% to 7,514, printing fresh all-time highs as the AI-led tech bid extended and retail flows piled in alongside.

Earnings beats (Cisco AI orders) plus Cerebras IPO appetite keep validating the AI capex story — the rally is broadening past Mag 7 even as breadth indicators tighten.

Retail Sales Thursday and post-summit headlines — 7,500 is now the floor; a print above 7,540 invites a chase into 7,600, while a soft Retail print can fade gains fast.

Nasdaq 100 jumped 1.0% to 29,659, led by NVDA +4.1% and a broad chips bid on hopes that Trump-Xi will soften AI export curbs.

Cook, Musk, and Huang joining the Beijing delegation is itself the trade — markets are pricing a tangible export-control easing, which would supercharge SOX members.

If the summit communique mentions semiconductor cooperation, expect a NVDA-led leg toward 30,000; absent it, a fast unwind back to 29,200 is on the table.

Dow added 0.96% to 50,171, with cyclicals catching a late bid alongside tech as the Trump-Xi narrative buoyed industrials and materials.

A trade truce extension benefits Dow-heavy multinationals more than the Nasdaq composite — that's the rotation playing out underneath the headline strength.

50,000 is now near-term support; the post-summit press conference is the binary catalyst — a deal pushes 50,500, no deal flushes back to 49,700.

Bitcoin ripped 2.6% to $81,352 as the risk-on tape and BTC-dominance rising to 58.2% pulled flows out of alts back into majors.

The macro setup is friendlier — VIX at 17.8 and a softer DXY are exactly the conditions BTC needs, plus ETF flows are picking up after a flat week.

$82,000 is the immediate resistance; a clean break reignites the path to $85k, while failure here invites a fade back to $79k on profit-taking.

Ethereum rose 1.85% to $2,299, lagging Bitcoin as dominance rotated toward majors despite a constructive risk-on tape.

ETH is stuck in the same playbook — until ETF flows decisively turn or a major L2 catalyst hits, BTC outperformance during rallies is the path of least resistance.

$2,320 is the breakout level for ETH to start closing the gap with BTC; rejection there pins ETH/BTC at multi-month lows.

NVDA surged 4.1% to $235.09, the single biggest contributor to Nasdaq gains as chip names led the summit-day risk bid.

The Huang-in-Beijing optic is the marginal trade — any softening of US AI chip export rules would be immediately accretive to NVDA's data center revenue trajectory.

Summit headlines plus tomorrow's earnings tape from chip peers — $240 is the all-time high zone; rejection here without summit progress can trigger a quick $228 retest.

Tesla added 1.06% to $449.98 as Musk's presence in Beijing kept the China optionality trade alive into the close.

Gigafactory Shanghai and FSD-China remain the core re-rating catalysts — any trade-deal language on EV tariffs is leveraged upside for TSLA specifically.

$455 caps the recent range; a summit communique that mentions automotive cooperation can clear that level — otherwise $440 magnetizes on a quiet print.

Apple traded flat to $298.95, with Cook in Beijing offset by a steady pause after recent supplier-cycle headlines.

AAPL needs concrete tariff exemption language to break out of this range — the optic of the CEO at the summit isn't enough without product-specific clarity.

$300 is the key cap; a summit mention of consumer tech exemptions sends AAPL through it, while a noisy non-result flushes back to $293.

Microsoft gained 1.04% to $409.41, riding the broader AI-infrastructure bid even without a stock-specific catalyst.

Azure AI is the second-derivative beneficiary of every Nebius/Cerebras-style validation of compute demand — MSFT is the cleanest large-cap proxy on the trade.

$412 is short-term resistance; a clean print there with tech leadership intact opens $420, while macro disappointment caps action at $407.

Meta climbed 0.98% to $622.66, participating in the tech rally but lagging chip-linked names like NVDA on a relative basis.

Ad-spend resilience and Reality Labs cost discipline still anchor the story — but META's AI capex remains the swing factor and isn't getting fresh validation today.

$625 has been the recent ceiling; breaking it requires either a positive guidance leak or a clear summit-driven risk-on extension into Friday.

Alphabet slipped 0.17% to $401.93, a small underperformer in the tech tape after sharp gains in the prior session.

GOOGL is consolidating recent strength on no fresh catalysts — the AI search narrative is mature near term, and antitrust headlines remain a cap.

$400 is the line in the sand intraday; holding it keeps the uptrend intact, while a break opens a quick test of $395 before buyers re-engage.

Amazon eased 0.68% to $268.28 as retail-adjacent names faded into Thursday's Retail Sales risk event.

AWS strength is well-priced, but the retail side gets re-priced on every macro print — soft Retail Sales tomorrow would be a clean negative even with a strong cloud setup.

Thursday 15:30 TRT US Retail Sales is the binary — a beat reverses today's fade toward $272; a miss extends the slide to $263.