// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD drifted lower to 1.1754 as the dollar firmed on safe-haven demand after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'on life support.'

DXY reclaiming 98+ signals the market is repricing geopolitical risk premium back into the dollar — the ECB-hold vs. potential Fed-hawkishness gap is widening again.

Tuesday CPI at 15:30 TRT is the week's pivot — hot print above 3.5% YoY locks out June cuts and sends EUR toward 1.1700.

Cable sold off 60 pips to 1.3535 as sterling reversed Friday's gains, weighed by rising oil costs and a firmer dollar.

UK snap election risk is building — polls show Labour's lead narrowing, and currency markets are pricing political uncertainty alongside the oil-driven inflation hit to the UK consumer.

UK employment data Wednesday 09:00 TRT — wage growth above 6% keeps the BoE boxed in; below 5.5% opens a dovish pivot.

Dollar-yen pushed higher to 157.42 as US yields rose to 4.41%, pulling the pair away from Friday's intervention-fear lows.

The BoJ's credibility problem deepens — 10Y JGB yields are stuck below 1.5% while the US-Japan spread widens, making intervention talk cheap without actual rate hikes.

Japan Q1 GDP Thursday 02:50 TRT — contraction print reopens the yen carry trade; positive surprise triggers another intervention scare above 158.

Aussie slipped to 0.7220 as commodity currencies softened despite surging oil — iron ore weakness and a firmer dollar outweighed energy gains.

Australia's terms-of-trade sweet spot is fading as the Iran conflict drives oil costs higher without lifting iron ore or LNG prices proportionally.

RBA meeting minutes Tuesday — any hint of a hawkish hold due to oil-driven CPI pressures could stabilize AUD above 0.7200.

Gold pulled back $14 to $4,705 despite escalating Iran tensions, as rising US yields and a stronger dollar capped upside after touching $4,783 intraday.

The gold-yield tug-of-war is intensifying — geopolitical risk supports $4,600+ but 4.41% on the 10Y is the highest since March, creating real competition for safe-haven flows.

CPI Tuesday 15:30 TRT determines the next $100 move — hot inflation pushes yields higher and pressures gold; soft print sends it back toward $4,800.

Silver dropped to $84.98 after failing to hold above $88, underperforming gold as the gold-silver ratio widened back above 55.

Silver's industrial demand story is being overshadowed by macro headwinds — rising yields hurt the zero-yield metal more than gold, and China PMI softness weighs on the industrial component.

Watch the $84 support — a break below opens $80; holding above $85 with a soft CPI print could reignite the push toward $90.

WTI surged 2.5% to $100.49 after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire 'on life support' and rejected Tehran's counter-proposal, raising fears of renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Triple-digit oil is now the base case while Hormuz risk persists — even partial disruption to the strait's 21M bpd throughput would create a supply shock that no SPR release can offset.

EIA inventories Wednesday 17:30 TRT and any Hormuz shipping lane updates — draw above 3M barrels confirms demand resilience; tanker diversion news sends Brent toward $110.

S&P 500 edged up 0.2% to a fresh record close at 7,412.84, powered by semis and AI plays despite oil crossing $100 and the VIX jumping to 18.4.

The market is running a dangerous split — mega-cap tech keeps printing new highs on AI capex euphoria while breadth narrows and oil-sensitive sectors lag. Classic late-cycle divergence.

CPI Tuesday 15:30 TRT is the gatekeeper — consensus 3.4% YoY core; above 3.6% triggers a sell-the-news reaction; at or below consensus extends the grind to 7,500.

Nasdaq 100 gained 0.3% to 29,321 as memory chip stocks hit record highs led by Micron, and AI infrastructure plays continued their relentless bid.

The AI capex cycle is entering its acceleration phase — hyperscaler spend commitments for 2026 now total $325B+, and the market is rewarding any company touching the inference stack.

CPI report Tuesday sets the tone; post-close focus shifts to any Tuesday pre-announcements ahead of May options expiry Friday.

Dow added 95 points to 49,704, with industrials and financials providing modest support while energy stocks outperformed on the oil surge.

The Dow is lagging the Nasdaq by 15 percentage points YTD — a rotation into value would need lower yields and cooler oil, neither of which is materializing.

CPI Tuesday 15:30 TRT; 50K is the psychological magnet — a soft print could catalyze the breakout.

Bitcoin dipped 0.8% to $81,040 as crypto pulled back from Monday's strong open, with risk appetite fading as Trump's Iran comments rattled broader markets.

BTC's correlation with risk assets is reasserting — despite the digital-gold narrative, bitcoin is trading more like a high-beta tech proxy as institutional flows dominate over retail.

CPI reaction in equities will set the tone for crypto; a move below $80,000 opens $77,500 support; holding $81K with equity strength targets $84,000.

Ethereum fell 1.6% to $2,302 as the ETH/BTC ratio continued its multi-month slide, with Solana's developer share gains adding to bearish sentiment.

Ethereum's fundamental problem is accelerating — Solana now commands 23% of active developers vs ETH's declining share, and the market is pricing in L1 competition eroding Ethereum's moat.

The $2,250 level is critical — a break below confirms the bearish trend toward $2,100; a bounce with volume above $2,350 signals a double-bottom.

NVIDIA surged 2.0% to $219.44, leading the chip rally as Intel's CEO highlighted collaborative products and memory stocks hit record highs.

NVIDIA is the undisputed pick-and-shovel play of the AI boom — every hyperscaler's capex increase flows directly to Jensen's P&L, and the inference demand wave is just starting.

Watch for any pre-earnings guidance updates as we approach May earnings season; $222 is the near-term resistance from Monday's intraday high.

Tesla rocketed 3.9% to $445, its best day in three weeks, after Piper Sandler argued current prices give investors Optimus robotics exposure 'for free.'

The bull case has fully shifted from cars to robots and autonomy — Piper's sum-of-parts valuation implies $0 for Optimus at current prices, which is the narrative driving momentum buyers.

Trump's China trip this week is critical — Musk is joining; any tariff relief signal for EV exports could push TSLA toward $460.

Apple was flat at $292.68 as the stock consolidated near highs ahead of the Trump China delegation trip, where Tim Cook is confirmed as a participant.

Apple's China exposure is both its biggest risk and opportunity this week — 20% of revenue depends on a market where regulatory pressure and tariff uncertainty persist.

Any headlines from the Trump-Xi meeting on tech tariffs or App Store regulations will be the catalyst; $290 support, $298 resistance.

Microsoft slipped 0.6% to $412.66 as Nadella's testimony in the Musk-OpenAI trial dominated headlines, overshadowing otherwise solid fundamentals.

The OpenAI trial is a distraction, not a fundamental risk — Microsoft's $13B investment is already generating returns through Azure AI, and no trial outcome changes that moat.

Trial headlines continue Tuesday; technically, $405 is the key support from Monday's low — a break below signals broader tech rotation.

Meta fell 1.8% to $598.86, breaking below $600 for the first time in two weeks as reports of an internal AI strategy crisis weighed on sentiment.

The AI spending credibility gap is widening — Meta's $40B+ annual AI capex needs to show consumer product traction soon, and internal dissent about Zuckerberg's direction isn't helping.

The $595 level is the 20-day moving average support — a close below opens $580; above $605 and the dip gets bought.

Alphabet dropped 3.0% to $388.64, the sharpest one-day decline since April, despite positive coverage of Anthropic's growth benefiting Google Cloud.

The sell-off looks like profit-taking after a 30%+ YTD run rather than fundamental deterioration — but South Korea's proposed excess AI profit tax is creating a new regulatory overhang for the sector.

The $385 level is the 50-day moving average — a hold there confirms the dip is buyable; a break below signals a deeper correction to $370.

Amazon declined 1.4% to $268.99 as broader mega-cap weakness dragged the stock despite strong corporate profit environment and AI cloud demand.

Amazon is caught in the crossfire of two narratives — AI cloud growth is accelerating, but the Trump China trip raises tariff uncertainty for the e-commerce business that still drives 60% of revenue.

Watch for China trade signals from the Trump delegation; $265 is the near-term support — a break below targets $258.