// DAILY DIGEST

EUR edged to 1.1769 as the dollar softened on risk-on flows into Asian equities and tech. DXY held below 98.10 for a third straight session.

Weak dollar momentum is structural — markets are pricing two Fed cuts by September while ECB stays hawkish on sticky services inflation.

US CPI Tuesday 15:30 TRT is the week's pivot. Core above 0.3% MoM would reprice Fed path and reverse dollar weakness sharply.

Cable gained 45 pips to 1.3601, supported by broad dollar weakness and solid UK services PMI data last week.

BoE rate path divergence from the Fed is widening — UK inflation persistence keeps the BoE on hold while Fed signals cuts. Sterling benefits.

UK employment data Wednesday 09:00 TRT. Rising wages would reinforce BoE hawkishness and push cable toward 1.3700.

Dollar-yen crept higher to 157.03 despite broad dollar weakness — yen underperformed as risk appetite sent capital out of safe havens.

BoJ's July rate hike expectations are fading after soft Tokyo CPI. The carry trade is back on, capping yen strength even as DXY weakens.

Japan GDP Wednesday 02:50 TRT. Contraction would kill remaining BoJ hike bets and open 158+ quickly.

Aussie rallied to 0.7242, within 0.5% of its 52-week high. Commodities strength and Asian tech optimism lifted the risk-sensitive currency.

China stimulus expectations plus surging commodity prices create a perfect storm for AUD. Iron ore above $140 adds fundamental support.

RBA minutes Tuesday 03:30 TRT. Any hint of hawkish tilt at the next meeting could push AUD through the 52-week high at 0.7277.

Gold dropped $35 to $4,684 despite Trump rejecting Iran's peace deal. Risk-on flows into equities and crypto pulled capital away from the safe haven.

Gold's failure to rally on geopolitical escalation is a bearish signal. The metal is trading as a crowded long, not a hedge — profit-taking dominates.

US CPI Tuesday is the swing factor. Hot print revives real-rate fears and pressures gold further; soft print restores $4,730+.

Silver gained nearly 1% to $81.15, outperforming gold. Industrial demand narrative continues to dominate the gold-silver ratio compression.

Silver's dual role — industrial metal plus monetary hedge — makes it the better play in a risk-on, inflation-worried environment. Solar panel demand keeps a floor under prices.

Gold-silver ratio near 57.7 — if gold breaks below $4,650, silver follows regardless of industrial demand. Watch $79.50 support.

WTI surged 3.75% to $99.00 after Trump rejected Iran's peace offer over Strait of Hormuz demands. Brent pushed above $100.

The failed diplomacy reignites supply disruption fears. Iran exports 1.5M bbl/day — any escalation threatens the already-tight global supply balance with OPEC+ slow to add barrels.

$100 psychological resistance is the line. Break above opens $103-$105 range. De-escalation headline could slam it back to $95.

S&P closed at 7,398.9, within 3 points of its all-time high. Tech and semis led the charge as AI capex optimism overrode Iran headlines.

The market is pricing peak earnings growth — AI spending is accelerating faster than even bulls expected. Breadth is narrowing though, which historically precedes corrections.

Intraday ATH test at 7,401.5 is imminent. Clean break targets 7,500. CPI miss Tuesday could trigger the breakout; hot CPI kills it.

Nasdaq 100 hit a new all-time high at 29,235 — a 2.35% surge led by semis after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also reached a record.

AI capex cycle is entering a new phase. Hyperscalers are spending faster than consensus, and the market is rewarding the entire supply chain — from chips to cloud to cooling.

30,000 round number is the next magnet. Earnings from Cisco and Applied Materials this week will test whether the AI narrative has more room.

Dow barely moved, adding just 12 points to 49,609. Old-economy names lagged as money rotated hard into growth and semis.

The Dow's flatness while Nasdaq surges 2.35% signals a classic rotation. Industrials and financials need rate-cut clarity that CPI data could provide.

50,000 psychological level remains the target. Needs breadth expansion from industrials and financials — unlikely without softer inflation data.

Bitcoin slipped 1.7% to $80,707 as weekend liquidity thinned out. Failed to hold $82,000 support after a brief rally attempt.

BTC is stuck in no-man's land — too far from ATH to attract momentum buyers, too high for value accumulation. Equities are stealing the risk appetite.

$79,000 is the line. Break below opens $77,500 and potentially $75,000. ETF flow data Monday will signal institutional conviction.

ETH dropped 1.7% to $2,330, underperforming BTC again. Solana developer share jumped to 23% at Ethereum's expense per a new ecosystem report.

Ethereum's developer exodus narrative is weighing on sentiment. ETH/BTC ratio keeps grinding lower as capital flows to faster L1s and BTC ETFs.

$2,280 support is critical — it's held three times since April. Break below targets $2,200. Pectra upgrade timeline updates could shift sentiment.

NVIDIA gained 1.75% to $215.20, within 1.2% of its all-time high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a record, lifting the entire sector.

AI capex acceleration is the strongest tailwind in markets right now. Every hyperscaler is spending more than guided, and NVIDIA captures the lion's share of GPU demand.

ATH at $217.80 is the near-term test. Earnings May 28 loom large — any guidance miss after this run could trigger a 10%+ pullback.

Tesla surged 4% to $428.35, its best day in three weeks. Wedbush reiterated a bull case tied to robotaxi timeline acceleration.

The stock trades on narrative, not fundamentals. Robotaxi and energy storage are the two catalysts bulls are pricing in. China sales data remains the bear counterpoint.

$440 resistance from the April high is the next hurdle. Cybertruck recall headlines could cap momentum if they resurface.

Apple rallied 2% to $293.32, just $1.44 from its all-time high. The 2026 chip war narrative — with Apple dominating custom silicon — fueled the bid.

Apple's vertical integration moat is finally being priced as an AI advantage. On-device AI processing via Apple Silicon gives it a unique privacy-first positioning.

ATH at $294.76 is one strong session away. WWDC in June with new AI features is the next major catalyst. Break above $295 targets $300.

Microsoft fell 1.3% to $415.12 as reports surfaced about its troubled African data center expansion. The stock has lagged mega-cap peers all year.

MSFT is the odd one out in the AI rally — 25% off highs while peers flirt with records. Azure growth deceleration and heavy capex spending are eroding the bull case.

$410 support has held since April. Break below exposes $400. Needs a positive Azure growth data point to rejoin the AI rally.

Meta slipped 1.2% to $609.63 as broader tech rotation favored hardware/semis over software/advertising names. Still 23% off its high.

Meta's $3.3B EU fine and ongoing Reality Labs losses are headwinds. The market is rewarding AI infrastructure plays over AI application plays this cycle.

$600 is the psychological floor. Trump's landmark social media regulation could create additional regulatory overhang if it advances.

Alphabet rose 0.7% to $400.80, within $1.20 of its all-time high. Analysts flagged it as the best-positioned mega-cap for AI monetization.

GOOGL is the stealth AI winner. Search + Cloud + Waymo gives it the broadest AI moat. The stock has quietly tripled from its 52-week low.

ATH at $402 is the immediate test. Clean break with volume targets $410-$420. Google I/O later this month is the next narrative event.

Amazon gained 0.6% to $272.68. AWS growth reacceleration and the expanding AI moat narrative kept the stock within 2% of highs.

Amazon's custom Trainium chips and AWS's AI inference platform are positioning it as the picks-and-shovels play alongside NVIDIA. Margins are expanding.

52-week high at $278.56 is the target. Prime Day timing announcement and any new AWS AI product launches could catalyze the breakout.