// DAILY DIGEST

EUR/USD closed Friday at 1.1631, down 0.7% on the week after a 1.4% monthly PPI shock pushed the dollar bid; no fresh weekend tape but US10Y still parked at 4.59%.

The euro is caught between an ECB still priced for a hike path and a US 'higher-for-longer' trade that's been re-armed by Friday's PPI — until that gap resolves, every dollar bounce is a sell-the-rip into yields.

1.1565 remains the line; a hold opens 1.1700, a break exposes 1.1500. Warsh's first public remarks as incoming Fed chair this week are the binary catalyst.

GBP/USD slipped to 1.3326 over the weekend as UK 30-year gilt yields hit a 28-year high on speculation Burnham will challenge Starmer — fiscal credibility is the new sterling tax.

This is a leadership crisis priced as a bond crisis: gilts are leading the move, sterling is the second-derivative trade. Until the Labour leadership question resolves, every rally is rented.

1.3303 support has held three sessions; a daily close below opens 1.3200. Any Burnham announcement or Starmer cabinet reshuffle will move the pair before any UK data this week.

USD/JPY pushed to 158.73 into the weekend as PPI-driven yield strength outweighed any safe-haven yen bid from Iran-Hormuz rhetoric.

The carry trade is breathing again — every 5bp move on US10Y above 4.50% pulls USD/JPY harder than MOF intervention talk can push back. Without verbal escalation from Tokyo, 160 magnetism returns.

159.40 is the intraday pivot; a daily close above opens 160.00 and the intervention zone. Watch for a Suzuki or Kanda 'closely watching' line — that's the only thing capping it short-term.

AUD/USD held 0.7153 into the weekend with no fresh China tape; the pair has been pinned in a 70-pip range as Trump-Xi summit afterglow battles dollar strength.

AUD is the cleanest expression of the 'risk-on-but-careful' regime: it benefits from any China stimulus headline but bleeds whenever US yields push higher. Right now both forces are roughly balanced.

0.7120 support is the line of defense; below opens 0.7054. RBA minutes Tuesday and Aussie jobs data Thursday are the domestic catalysts; PBOC LPR fix Tuesday is the China leg.

Gold finished Friday at 4,561.90 — down 2.5% on the week and the worst session of 2026 — as PPI-driven yields and Iran-Hormuz de-escalation talk pulled the safety bid out simultaneously.

Gold's correction is the textbook 'real yields up + risk-off premium out' two-factor squeeze. The structural EM central-bank bid remains, but it's slow money and won't catch a knife in real time.

4,522 is the first technical support; a close below opens 4,446 and a deeper retracement. Any Iran headline that revives Hormuz risk is the asymmetric bull trigger.

Silver settled at 77.55 Friday, down 8.7% on the week — silver's classic 'leveraged gold' move, amplified by UBS resetting its 2026 target and India curbing select imports.

Silver still has the AI-buildout demand story (solar, EV power electronics), but in a yield-up tape it's the first speculative position to get cut. The macro de-rating is faster than the industrial re-rating.

75.81 is the technical floor that held the last three sessions; a break opens 72.00. UBS commentary follow-through and any tariff-relief signal from India are the two near-term catalysts.

WTI traded 101.02 over the weekend as Iran-Hormuz rhetoric flared again — Bessent flagged Iran storage saturation while Tehran issued fresh Strait threats.

Oil is now the cleanest geopolitical hedge in the macro book — every Hormuz headline is worth $2–3, and the AI-driven power-demand story keeps the structural bid alive even when risk markets wobble.

102.63 is the upside trigger; a daily close above opens 109. EIA inventories Wednesday and any concrete Iran action (or de-escalation) are the binary catalysts.

S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,408.5, down 1.2% on the week after a hot 6% PPI print pulled yields to 4.59% and clipped the AI-led rally into the close.

The market is now living trade-to-trade between AI capex enthusiasm and 'higher-for-longer' yield reality. Friday's reaction proved breadth still cracks when yields run — the AI names alone can't hold the index.

Nvidia earnings Wednesday and Walmart Tuesday are this week's binary events; 7,379 is the support that needs to hold pre-print. A close below opens a deeper test of 7,307.

Nasdaq 100 finished Friday at 29,125, off 1.5% on the week as yield strength forced a partial reversal of the AI-fueled push to fresh records.

The AI trade is now leveraged long duration: it's the part of the market most punished when 10Y yields back up. Every $1B of new hyperscaler capex still goes to NVDA, but the multiple math is suddenly fragile.

Nvidia Wednesday is THE print of the quarter — a beat-and-raise reignites the trade, a 'data center growth decel' headline takes the index back to 28,500. 28,905 is the level.

Dow closed Friday at 49,526, slipping back below the 50,000 round number after the PPI shock; cyclicals and industrials carried the bulk of the selling.

Below 50K, the Dow tells the 'rates-up-real-economy-down' story the AI-heavy indices mute. Warsh's nomination and any early hawkish tone will hit Dow components hardest.

49,407 is the first support; a close below opens 48,907. Walmart earnings Tuesday set the consumer tone — a soft guide takes the Dow lower regardless of Nvidia later in the week.

BTC traded 78,111 into Sunday — back below 80K after Iran-Hormuz threats and a 2Y yield at 4.09% that's choking out the breakout attempt; spot ETFs saw $635M of outflows last week.

Bitcoin is being treated as a duration-sensitive risk asset right now, not digital gold. With short rates this firm, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding crypto is at a multi-month high.

78,700 is the line that needs to reclaim by Monday US session; if it doesn't, 76,800 opens quickly. Any Hormuz escalation is a wildcard — a brief safety bid, then back to the macro story.

ETH settled at 2,185 Sunday, hovering at the lower end of the 2,200–2,340 range as the broader crypto correction pulled it down with BTC; staking-yield narrative continues at the corporate level.

ETH has the same macro headwind as BTC plus an additional supply story — staked-ETH growth is structurally bullish but does nothing in a multi-week risk-off window driven by US yields.

2,200 is the floor of the recent range; lose it and 2,140 prints fast. Any meaningful BTC breakdown drags ETH 1.5x — correlation is back to 0.85.

NVDA closed Friday at 225.32, down 4.4% on the week and -8% from highs as the yield move spared no part of the AI complex into Wednesday's print.

Wednesday's earnings is the most important single catalyst in the market this quarter. Consensus has been ratcheted high enough that a 'beat-and-meet' is now the bear scenario — the bar is a guide-up.

Pre-print risk-management range is 223–231; the print itself is binary. A clean beat-and-raise targets 240+, an in-line guide takes it to 215. Data center segment growth >55% YoY is the line in the sand.

TSLA finished Friday at 422.24, down 4.8% on the week after Musk's broader political commentary and concerns the China narrative is fully priced.

Tesla is the highest-beta name in the Trump-trade complex — it amplifies every move in the 'China opens, Musk wins' narrative both ways. Without a fresh China headline, the long is paying time decay.

421.15 is the support that defined Friday's low; a close below opens 404. Any concrete China FSD/factory headline from this week's Trump-Xi follow-through is the asymmetric upside trigger.

AAPL closed Friday at 300.23, +0.7% on the week — one of the few names that held up through the PPI shock as Berkshire continuity (Greg Abel committed to the position) reassured holders.

Apple is now back to being the index defensive: it has the cleanest China negotiation tape (talks ongoing), Buffett-vote-of-confidence, and the lowest sensitivity to the AI capex cycle's near-term volatility.

300.43 is the immediate breakout level; above that, 306.77 quickly. Any China tariff-relief soundbite from this week's diplomacy is the upside catalyst; iPhone unit cuts headlines are the downside risk.

MSFT closed Friday at 421.92, +3.0% on the week as Bill Ackman disclosed a fresh $2.09B stake and the LinkedIn AI restructure framed Microsoft's cost discipline favorably.

Microsoft is the 'best house on the AI street' trade — it has the OpenAI relationship, the enterprise distribution, AND a CFO willing to cut headcount to defend margins. That combination is rare in this market.

420.44 is the breakout line that just printed; holding it opens 430. Any OpenAI partnership update or Azure AI revenue commentary at upcoming conferences moves the stock; antitrust headlines are the tail risk.

META closed Friday at 614.23, off 0.7% on the week; the stock is now caught in the broader AI-capex-vs-monetization debate that's pulling at hyperscaler multiples.

Meta has the most positive AI-monetization story (ads ROAS up since Llama integration), but it's also got the highest capex burden — so it's the cleanest 'is the spend worth it?' debate in the index.

602 is the level that must hold; below that opens 585. Any Reels/Threads ad-revenue datapoint or sell-side capex-guide cut would move the stock more than another headline-grab AI announcement.

GOOGL closed Friday at 396.78, -1.1% on the week; Alphabet has now compounded 140% in 12 months and the consensus question has flipped to 'is it too late' rather than 'is it cheap'.

Google's setup is asymmetric: search resilience + Gemini momentum + Waymo optionality. The risk isn't the business — it's that the multiple already prices for a 'no antitrust loss' base case.

388.47 is the must-hold level; below that 377 trades fast. DOJ remedy headlines and any Gemini-2 launch or pricing news are the two non-earnings catalysts this week.

AMZN closed Friday at 264.14, -1.2% on the week; the tariff-refund lawsuit storyline added noise but didn't break the 257.90 support that's defined the week.

Amazon is the 'AWS AI revenue acceleration' story most underpriced relative to MSFT/GOOG — but it's also the most sensitive to consumer softness, which is exactly what Walmart's Tuesday print will probe.

257.90 is the line of defense; below that 250.71 opens. Walmart's same-store sales and outlook Tuesday will set the AMZN consumer tone before the AI story reasserts.