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EUR/USD bounced to 1.1654 (+0.31%) as the dollar slipped on Hormuz ceasefire optimism, even after US strikes complicated the picture. Range traded tight all session as traders weighed conflicting Iran headlines.

Euro is the cleanest dollar-funded carry when oil-driven dollar strength fades. With DXY at 98.99 and US10Y near 4.46%, the relief rally favors EUR over higher-beta crosses while geopolitical resolution remains uncertain.

EU CPI flash print tomorrow is the main catalyst — ECB pricing still hinges on services inflation stickiness. 1.1700 caps upside; a clean Hormuz deal headline could push there. Loss of 1.1600 reopens 1.1550.

USD/JPY slipped to 159.24 (-0.20%) as the dollar lost some Iran-premium overnight, but the pair stayed pinned near intervention-watch territory. Yen failed to capitalize on lower US yields.

The carry is still doing the work — even with US10Y at 4.46% (-0.58%), the differential vs JGBs keeps shorts on the back foot. Only MoF intervention or a Fed-pivot signal breaks this.

BoJ summary of opinions Friday; any hawkish hint accelerates yen recovery. 160.00 is the line that triggers verbal intervention rhetoric. Downside support 158.50 then 157.80.