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EUR/USD bounced to 1.1654 (+0.31%) as the dollar slipped on Hormuz ceasefire optimism, even after US strikes complicated the picture. Range traded tight all session as traders weighed conflicting Iran headlines.

Euro is the cleanest dollar-funded carry when oil-driven dollar strength fades. With DXY at 98.99 and US10Y near 4.46%, the relief rally favors EUR over higher-beta crosses while geopolitical resolution remains uncertain.

EU CPI flash print tomorrow is the main catalyst — ECB pricing still hinges on services inflation stickiness. 1.1700 caps upside; a clean Hormuz deal headline could push there. Loss of 1.1600 reopens 1.1550.

Gold rebounded to $4,523 (+1.71%) as US strikes on Iran reignited the safe-haven bid after two sessions of ceasefire-driven selling. Silver led the precious metals complex higher with a +1.90% move.

The Iran story is a two-sided coin flip and gold remains the cleanest hedge for both inflation tail-risk (if oil spikes) and stagflation (if growth slows). Fed cut bets keep real yields contained.

Friday PCE inflation print is the binary catalyst — hot reading hits gold via real yields, cool print extends the rally. Support $4,450; resistance $4,580 then prior high $4,650.