// COMPARE

WTI slipped to $88.48 (-0.23%), giving back overnight gains as Hormuz ceasefire optimism overcame US-strike concerns. Tight range as traders waited for the next Iran headline.

Oil is trading the binary — every Iran news cycle whipsaws the tape. The underlying physical market remains tight (OPEC+ disciplined), but headline risk dominates positioning until resolution.

Any Hormuz deal confirmation pushes to $85; failure or fresh escalation reopens $95. Weekly EIA inventories Wednesday remain in the background. $90 is the headline-driven pivot.

USD/JPY slipped to 159.24 (-0.20%) as the dollar lost some Iran-premium overnight, but the pair stayed pinned near intervention-watch territory. Yen failed to capitalize on lower US yields.

The carry is still doing the work — even with US10Y at 4.46% (-0.58%), the differential vs JGBs keeps shorts on the back foot. Only MoF intervention or a Fed-pivot signal breaks this.

BoJ summary of opinions Friday; any hawkish hint accelerates yen recovery. 160.00 is the line that triggers verbal intervention rhetoric. Downside support 158.50 then 157.80.