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WTI surged 3.75% to $99.00 after Trump rejected Iran's peace offer over Strait of Hormuz demands. Brent pushed above $100.

The failed diplomacy reignites supply disruption fears. Iran exports 1.5M bbl/day — any escalation threatens the already-tight global supply balance with OPEC+ slow to add barrels.

$100 psychological resistance is the line. Break above opens $103-$105 range. De-escalation headline could slam it back to $95.

Dollar-yen crept higher to 157.03 despite broad dollar weakness — yen underperformed as risk appetite sent capital out of safe havens.

BoJ's July rate hike expectations are fading after soft Tokyo CPI. The carry trade is back on, capping yen strength even as DXY weakens.

Japan GDP Wednesday 02:50 TRT. Contraction would kill remaining BoJ hike bets and open 158+ quickly.