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WTI surged 3.75% to $99.00 after Trump rejected Iran's peace offer over Strait of Hormuz demands. Brent pushed above $100.

The failed diplomacy reignites supply disruption fears. Iran exports 1.5M bbl/day — any escalation threatens the already-tight global supply balance with OPEC+ slow to add barrels.

$100 psychological resistance is the line. Break above opens $103-$105 range. De-escalation headline could slam it back to $95.

EUR edged to 1.1769 as the dollar softened on risk-on flows into Asian equities and tech. DXY held below 98.10 for a third straight session.

Weak dollar momentum is structural — markets are pricing two Fed cuts by September while ECB stays hawkish on sticky services inflation.

US CPI Tuesday 15:30 TRT is the week's pivot. Core above 0.3% MoM would reprice Fed path and reverse dollar weakness sharply.